Asosiy tarkibga o'tish

8.5-bo'lim : Ehtimollik

1. Mayli,

\[f\left( x \right) = \left\{ {\begin{array}{ll}{\displaystyle \frac{3}{{37760}}{x^2}\left( {20 - x} \right)}&{{\mbox{if }}2 \le x \le 18}\\0&{{\mbox{otherwise}}}\end{array}} \right.\]
  1. \(f\left( x \right)\) ehtimollik zichligi funksiyasi ekanligini ko'rsating.
  2. \(P\left( {X \le 7} \right)\) ni toping.
  3. \(P\left( {X \ge 7} \right)\) ni toping.
  4. \(P\left( {3 \le X \le 14} \right)\) ni toping.
  5. \(X\) ning o'rtacha qiymatini aniqlang.

a \(f\left( x \right)\) ehtimollik zichligi funksiyasi ekanligini ko'rsating. Yechim

Xo'sh, bu funktsiyaning ehtimollik zichligi funksiyasi ekanligini ko'rsatish uchun birinchi navbatda \(2 \le x \le 18\) diapazonida funktsiya musbat ekanligini va hamma joyda nolga teng bo'lishini va shuning uchun birinchi shart bajarilganligini ko'rishimiz mumkin.

Bu erda qilishimiz kerak bo'lgan asosiy narsa \(\int_{{ - \infty }}^{\infty }{{f\left( x \right)\,dx}} = 1\) ekanligini ko'rsatishdir.

\[\begin{align*}\int_{{ - \infty }}^{\infty }{{f\left( x \right)\,dx}} & = \int_{2}^{{18}}{{\frac{3}{{37760}}{x^2}\left( {20 - x} \right)\,dx}}\\ & = \frac{3}{{37760}}\int_{2}^{{18}}{{20{x^2} - {x^3}\,dx}} = \left. {\frac{3}{{37760}}\left( {\frac{{20}}{3}{x^3} - \frac{1}{4}{x^4}} \right)} \right|_2^{18} = 1\end{align*}\]

Integral bitta va shuning uchun bu aslida ehtimollik zichligi funktsiyasidir.


b \(P\left( {X \le 7} \right)\) ni toping. Yechim

Avval shuni esda tutingki, funksiya nolga teng bo'lmagan \(x\) dagi chegaralarimiz tufayli bu \(P\left( {2 \le X \le 7} \right)\) ga teng. Mana bu muammo uchun ish.

\[P\left( {X \le 7} \right) = P\left( {2 \le X \le 7} \right) = \int_{2}^{7}{{\frac{3}{{37760}}{x^2}\left( {20 - x} \right)\,dx}} = \left. {\frac{3}{{37760}}\left( {\frac{{20}}{3}{x^3} - \frac{1}{4}{x^4}} \right)} \right|_2^7 = \require{bbox} \bbox[2pt,border:1px solid black]{{0.130065}}\]

E'tibor bering, biz birinchi qismda noaniq integralni allaqachon bajarganimizdan foydalanganmiz. Biz qilishimiz kerak bo'lgan yagona narsa, ushbu qismning chegaralariga mos keladigan chegaralarni o'zgartirish edi.


c \(P\left( {X \ge 7} \right)\) ni toping. Yechim

Avval shuni esda tutingki, funktsiya nolga teng bo'lmagan \(x\) dagi limitlarimiz tufayli bu \(P\left( {7 \le X \le 18} \right)\) ga teng. Mana bu muammo uchun ish.

\[P\left( {X \ge 7} \right) = P\left( {7 \le X \le 18} \right) = \int_{7}^{{18}}{{\frac{3}{{37760}}{x^2}\left( {20 - x} \right)\,dx}} = \left. {\frac{3}{{37760}}\left( {\frac{{20}}{3}{x^3} - \frac{1}{4}{x^4}} \right)} \right|_7^{18} = \require{bbox} \bbox[2pt,border:1px solid black]{{0.869935}}\]

E'tibor bering, biz birinchi qismda noaniq integralni allaqachon bajarganimizdan foydalanganmiz. Biz qilishimiz kerak bo'lgan yagona narsa, ushbu qismning chegaralariga mos keladigan chegaralarni o'zgartirish edi.


d \(P\left( {3 \le X \le 14} \right)\) ni toping. Yechim

Bu erda integralni hisoblashdan boshqa ko'p narsa qilish kerak emas.

\[P\left( {3 \le X \le 14} \right) = \int_{3}^{{14}}{{\frac{3}{{37760}}{x^2}\left( {20 - x} \right)\,dx}} = \left. {\frac{3}{{37760}}\left( {\frac{{20}}{3}{x^3} - \frac{1}{4}{x^4}} \right)} \right|_3^{14} = \require{bbox} \bbox[2pt,border:1px solid black]{{0.677668}}\]

E'tibor bering, biz birinchi qismda noaniq integralni allaqachon bajarganimizdan foydalanganmiz. Biz qilishimiz kerak bo'lgan yagona narsa, ushbu qismning chegaralariga mos keladigan chegaralarni o'zgartirish edi.


e \(X\) ning o'rtacha qiymatini aniqlang. Yechim

Bu qism uchun faqat quyidagi integralni hisoblashimiz kerak.

\[\begin{align*}\mu & = \int_{{ - \infty }}^{\infty }{{x\,f\left( x \right)\,dx}} = \int_{2}^{{18}}{{x\left[ {\frac{3}{{37760}}{x^2}\left( {20 - x} \right)} \right]\,dx}}\\ & = \frac{3}{{37760}}\int_{2}^{{18}}{{20{x^3} - {x^4}\,dx}} = \left. {\frac{3}{{37760}}\left( {5{x^4} - \frac{1}{5}{x^5}} \right)} \right|_2^{18} = 11.6705\end{align*}\]

\(X\) ning o'rtacha qiymati keyin 11,6705 ni tashkil qiladi.